Though during the past couple of weeks we have seen raw coffee bean prices stabilize or even soften slightly, year-to-date and looking long-term, the prediction by industry experts is that coffee bean prices will continue to climb significantly higher - likely to previously unseen highs. As an example the price for raw Sumatran beans has risen by more than 40 percent since April alone, and that is in addition to increases that occured during the preceeding months! The result of this continued upward pressure is, as I am sure you have experienced during the past year, significantly higher prices for your favoriate coffee.

We will continue to monitor and report on what is happening with coffee pricing as things unfold. In the meantime, we thank you for your continued support and your understanding in regard!

The Mystery

(and misery)

of Rising Coffee Prices…

No Mystery!

No doubt if you drink coffee you may have read about or experienced higher and higher coffee prices during the past year, and even more so in recent weeks.  One might think that the recent rise in gas and oil prices is the reason why we are paying more for our favorite coffee(s).  Today, at last check, according to a published report coffee prices appear to be in what investors call a “correction period” with the future price for coffee falling slightly after a wild, six-week ride upward.  The long-term, though, still shows indicators of still higher prices.

Certainly a cause for concern, the rise in fuel prices is, in itself, only a very small part of the issue.  There is actually much more to the story.

The Columbian affect 2010 = $$$

Last year during 2010, Columbia, the source for all Columbian coffee, experienced a significant fungus infestation, the result of which was the loss of equivalent to some 240,000 bags of raw coffee beans (equal to about 3.6 million pounds of coffee).  With this catastrophe coffee importers all around the world scrambled and turned their attention to other coffee producing countries in South and Central America to fill this void.  This crisis placed tremendous upward pressure on the price of coffee from these other countries, and still continues to reverberate as Columbia continues to recover.

The World economy – past and present = $$$

Prior to the collapse of the world economy, huge swathes of the world’s investment money had been plowed by investors and speculators into real estate investments, real estate and mortgage backed funds.  As we all know many of these funds collapsed.  Given the instability and/or shaky practices that have since come to light, these same investors and speculators were looking around for other safe places in which to invest.  Given the rising popularity of coffee and, for the most part, the stability of the supplies of coffee, huge pools of money have been invested in speculating, buying and trading coffee futures.

The law of supply and demand = $$$

Anyone who has taken or studied economics is familiar with the Law of Supply and Demand; the more demand than supply, prices will rise; less demand than supply, prices will fall.  One only has to look at the real estate market in the United States or increasing world demand for oil for examples of this – the result of which we are experiencing at the pump.

As the world economy continues to show signs of recovery and with the emergence of predominantly China and India as new, thriving economic powers, demand and interest in coffee as a beverage of choice in these countries is placing increased demand on current supplies and driving prices higher.

The Brazilian influence 2011 = $$$

This year, in addition to China and India being regarded as emerging economic powers, Brazil, the world’s largest producer of coffee, has also been added to this list.  It may seem strange to read this, but Brazilians are also now drinking more coffee than ever.  I say this because historically, due to the world demand for coffee and the money that could be earned from it, not to mention foreign interest or ownership in many of the major coffee plantations, most of the coffee grown around the world was grown for export only and rarely consumed in the countries where it was grown.  As the standards of living improve around the world and coffee becomes affordable and a beverage of choice, these practices in many countries are changing which adds more demand to an already pressured supply.

In addition to the fact that Brazilians are drinking coffee at unprecedented rates, the Brazilian government has also gotten wise to the Law of Supply and Demand.  Again keeping in mind that Brazil is the world’s largest producer of coffee though, typically, due to its extreme affordability and mild flavor is considered ideal for blended coffees, the Brazilian Government through regulating the quantity of coffee that can be sold and exported at any one time creates even higher prices.

The current oil and gas prices = $$$

As expressed previously, there is no doubt that any increase in oil and gas prices places even more upward pressure on the cost of anything that involves transportation – coffee included.  Coffee once harvested and processed needs to be shipped to whatever location where the coffee is to be roasted and packaged.  Once roasted and packaged, the finished, packaged coffee needs to be transported or shipped to either a warehouse, and/or its final destination, the retailer.

So, yes, the current oil crisis is, pardon the pun, negatively fueling things, but as I shared above, there is far more to the picture.

Where will it stop?

No one has the answer to that question.  Certainly the recent events in Japan with the tsunami hitting did, momentarily cause a free-fall of coffee prices and prices for other goods for a few days.  However once everyone had an opportunity to reflect on what happened and what this event may mean going forward, coffee prices along with those for other goods have resumed their upward surge with no end in sight.

Final sentiments

To encapsulate the world coffee situation in a very succinct way I will quote something I read a few weeks ago about the future of coffee prices, “Prepare for the worst; Hope for the best”.

Despite the upward market challenges Grains of Sense® will continue to select and roast the most distinguished coffees that can be obtained from the world’s coffee growing regions.  We will also continue to support the farmers, farmers’ communities and all Fair Trade products globally as a registered and certified partner of Fair Trade-USA (formerly TransFair-USA).

Despite the factors above that have precipitated any increase, we hope you will continue to purchase, enjoy and recommend our coffees.  It has been and is our pleasure to serve you!

Recently it came to my attention that a coffee roaster had posted on their blog  that people should be suspicious of a coffee roaster that does not or will not disclose the temperature at which a coffee has been roasted. 

Though it is true that for each different type of roast, City Roast, Full City Roast, French Roast, etc…there is an industry standard, target temperature that is considered the norm for each particular roast, I find this a very interesting statement for a couple of reasons.

First, this statement is somewhat misleading; I will explain why.  If you own or have ever owned more than one car in your lifetime, think for a minute and ask yourself two questions. Did both cars drive or perform the same way? Were the cars manufactured the same way? I would expect that you probably answered “No” to both of those questions.

Why do I draw this comparison? Well, just like no two cars are exactly the same, nor are any two coffee roasters exactly the same. Just as there is more than one car maker and more than one model of car, so is it the same with coffee roasters.  There are at least a half-dozen commercial roaster manufacturers.  Though the principles behind roasting coffee are the same – bean selection, time, temperature, air flow – each roaster manufacturer has their own design(s). Frequently, just like the car manufacturers, each roaster manufacturer may use components from different suppliers. The combination of these two facts means that though the end result is the same, fresh-roasted coffee, each roaster may not perform exactly the same way, or more correctly the data relating to the roasting process may differ due to the differences in the components that make up a particular roaster.

How do I know? Last year, in the spring of 2009, when I upgraded from the Diedrich Roaster I was using to my current roaster, a larger and much more sophisticated roaster custom manufactured for me by a specialty roaster manufacturer, for almost a two-week period I had difficulty matching the same roast levels or profiles I had been achieving on the Diedrich. Working closely with the manufacturer of my new roaster, we were able to identify these two important facts: different thermocouples, the technical name for what is essentially a thermometer installed inside a coffee roaster, made by different manufacturers may be calibrated or record temperatures differently. Second, depending on where the thermocouple or thermocouples (my roaster has three) are placed inside the coffee roaster will also yield different readings. If a thermocouple is installed closer to the heat source in one roaster when compared with a different roaster, logically it will yield higher readings; and conversely, if installed further away from the heat source it will yield lower readings.

This was my experience, which after a period of close monitoring and assessment, I was able to adjust and compensate for this differential. The result, the wonderful, smooth, full-flavored coffee masterpieces that I have been roasting and make available to you through our website, at the Harrisonburg Farmers Market, and a number of other venue in and around the Shenandoah Valley and beyond as listed on our website.

The preceding was the technical explanation. There is second reason, that being proprietary knowledge.  Ask yourself this question, if you owned a restaurant that was known for a particular signature dish and you had competition from other restaurants in the community, would you share any part of the recipe for this dish with anyone and everyone, or with one of your competitors? I would expect most people to say, “No”. Such is our position. As a roaster, I have worked long and hard to create each roast profile for our various coffees, and to freely give such information out would be akin to “giving away the farm”.

The reality is that except, maybe, to another coffee roaster the temperature to which the beans are roasted and leave the roaster is inconsquential especially when considering the technical differences between the brands or types of roasters.  The real and true test is what you experience and feel upon opening the bag and brewing a cup - the appearance of the beans, if the bean color and appearence is an important part of the whole experience for you, the wonderful aroma, and the taste as you enjoy a cup.  That…is what is truly most important!

So, to address the comment or statement made by this other roaster, I would not regard such guarded information or “secrecy” as being suspect or dishonest as this one roaster is implying, I would say that it really makes sense…Grains of Sense®

Well…with our change at the start of the year to being a sole-focused micro coffee roaster we have also decided to step out and up.

We are pleased to offer a special, Certified USDA Organic Kona “relationship coffee”, sourced and obtained directly from a grower we have been working closely with, and roasted with utmost care by yours truly.

Early feedback from those who have already purchased it is that is “excellent!”

Start each day with a few…Grains of Sense. 

Our latest coffee offering.

Here we are on the cusp of what is forecasted to be yet another massive dumping of snow for this area. With my supply of fresh-roasted Grains of Sense coffee at hand I say…bring it on! Ahhh…that is good!

Happy New Year! Hopefully each and all had a wonderfully blessed Christmas season shared with family and friends.
We at Grains of Sense are thrilled to share with you that 2009 finished off as being our best year ever! That success falls directly on the Lord for His blessing, and to all of you who have become friends and fans of Grains of Sense - our people and our coffees. Thank you!
The start of 2010 brings with it a number of exciting changes at Grains of Sense. If you have been a visitor to our website before, the most noteable change is that we are no longer are offering baked goods for sale. Though we had a number of loyal fans for our baked goods, roasting really good, fresh, hand-roasted coffees is truely where our heart and passions are.
With that said our mission to be your source for among the best tasting, if not the best tasting, fresh, hand-roasted USDA Certified Organic, Certified Fair Trade coffees continues.
Please check back with us every week or so to see any special announcements, or any of the changes I made reference to.
Thanks!! Have a blessed week!
Tom

Orders have been logging.

So I have been slogging.

And regretfully I have not been blogging.

Add to that this past week, I have been coughing and coughing and coughing.

Coffee still needs to be roasted.

And an update to my blog needs to be posted.

Have a great week and weekend and do check back.

And better yet, feel free to post some feedback.

But not spam! Never, never spam. Spam is only for eating, silly!

The old saying “If you build a better mousetrap the world will beat a path to your door.” is true.  I say that - not to brag or boast  - but because, Praise the Lord!, our coffee business continues to grow.  The number of fans for our baked goods continues to grow, too, but it is the growth of our coffee business that is most inspiring!

During the past few weeks I have had an increasing number of people rave about my coffee - the taste and the smoothness.  That is what I meant by building a better mousetrap - only in this case it is better coffee.

Though roasting and selling fresh-roasted coffee is my business, it is as much about sharing JOY with others, one cup at a time.  I had a friend, years ago, who was doing the “12-step” program as a recovering alcoholic who shared what they were learning that the word, JOY, meant; Jesus first, others second and you last.

In addition to the increasing number of customers I referred to above sharing with me how much they are enjoying my coffees, I have also been asked by a few businesses in the area during the past couple of weeks to supply them with coffee to serve - in a cafe and a restaurant.  These new businesses will be in addition to a number of other businesses who are already featuring our coffees.

Again, I am not boasting or bragging.  I am  just thankful that our business is growing.  Perhaps it might help to put things into perspective when I share this, which I have found of great help especially during these challenging times…

¹³I have strength for all things in Christ Who empowers me [I am ready for anything and equal to anything through Him Who ^[a]infuses inner strength into me; I am ^[b]self-sufficient in Christ’s sufficiency]. - Philippians 4:13, Amplified Bible

Thanks for stopping by.  Until next time…be blessed!

Tom

Well…we are back from our brief camping vacation at Virginia Beach.  Considering this was our first camping experience in a tent, let alone our first experience camping as a family, it went rather well.

I noticed up on the wall of the campsite a placard that said,”It’s not camping.  It’s Kamping”.  If you haven’t figured it out yet from that reference, it was a KOA where we “camped”.  After having camped in Algonquin Park, Bon Echo Park and even Sandbanks Provincial Park in Canada, I struggle to call this most recent experience, “camping”. 

I do have to admit that having running water and electricity right at the campsite was most convenient, practical, and even enjoyable.  There is something to be said being able to wake up early in the morning and, first thing, plug in the coffee maker and enjoy a nice, fresh-brewed pot of Grains of Sense Full City Roast, Vienna Roast or Italian Roast coffee.  The same can be said about being able to do the same after dinner, but to enjoy a nice pot of fresh-brewed Grains of Sense Dark Roast Decaffeinated coffee (though not listed on our website it is available).

In some respects we actually did feel as if we were camping in Canada as where ever we looked, there were cars and RV with license plates from Quebec and Ontario.  In all honesty, at least 70 percent of the vehicles we saw were from Quebec.

There was one very humorous moment, after the fact, from our trip.  On the third day of our trip, in the late afternoon, a KOA representative was driving through advising all of us that we needed to prepare as a possible tornado had been spotted about 15 miles south of where we were camping and was heading our way at 40 mph.  Hearing that information galvanized us, frantically springing into action taking down things, throwing supplies into the back of our truck, folding tables, tying things down, etc…before hurriedly piling into the truck and leaving the campsite within minutes.  Meanwhile we were busy panicking, our neighbors from the north were looking at us with passing curiosity while they simply continued to go about their business, eating supper, preparing supper or simply just relaxing around their campsites.  You get the picture.  Perhaps it was a language issue where they simply did not understand the warning they were being given.  Regardless, in the end the storm ended up missing us and all ended well.

Speaking of endings, I will end this post by inviting you to share your comments, try our coffees and baked goods, and check-back soon.

Grains of Sense coffees…sharing joy one cup at a time!

Greetings one and all!

Admittedly it has been too long since I last updated my blog.  For that I will apologize and take full responsibility.

If I may offer in my defence that I find it much easier and far more enjoyable to express myself through my fresh-roasted coffees than sitting in front of the computer racking my brain what to write.  If you haven’t tried our coffees yet, you will understand what I mean when you do!

What about our coffees?  I will tell you what we currently have, and, I will tell you what I am hearing from our customers…

It should be noted that all of our coffees are strictly Certified Fair Trade Organic.  Currently we have three different countries of origin featured, Peru, Nicaragua and Sumatra.  Within those three bean origins we offer five (5) different levels of roast from a City Roast through to Italian roast.

We also currently offer a Swiss Water Process (SWP) FTO Peru decaffeinated coffee in two-levels of roast - Full City and dark roast.  Most recently I created a FTO Espresso that leans more on the side of a Northern Italian espresso; ligher and sweeter in the cup than the traditional dark, oily and brooding espresso so commonly associated with espresso, today.

For those of you who are brooding or prone to brooding these days, I do plan to launch, soon, a dark, oily and brooding espresso that should appeal to you too!

What did I mean by the reference to, “Hello I must be going”?  We are going to take a few days off next week to enjoy a few days of summer for ourselves, so I can confidently say - and my wife will attest to this too - my brain is already on vacation.  That said, I invite you to check back on our blog at the end of next week for my next post though I invite you to post a blog.

Oh yeah…what I am hearing and what our customers are saying (see I told you my mind was already on vacation)…

As “Mikey” use to say about Life Cereal, “Try it, you’ll like it!”  We mean our coffee that is!

Be Blessed!

Tom (a.k.a. the “Grains of Sense Guy”)